5 PM Disc

It should be pointed out that with SSTs near 31c and a low shear environment...conditions are favorable for possible rapid intensification to occur between now and landfall. This is suggested by the SHIPS model experimental rapid intensification output...which indicates a 57 percent probability of that occurring. The only inhibiting factor is the dry air that surrounds Katrina and has been working its way into the inner-core region and eroding the deep convection. If the dry air mixes out within the next 12 hours...then intensities would likely be higher than the official forecast is indicating.