a vigorous tropical wave with a closed low and deep convection, mind you.
gonna keep the katrina idea at cat 1, 980-984mb, boca raton area. it still looks good so far.. i see the potential for more strengthening but seems more likely to do less as of now.
the second hit at al/ms is out to lunch based on the model shifts.. still more than 3 days out so i don't feel too bad relocating. i'll just go with 'what clark said'. i'm thinking it will be stronger, is the only difference. earlier idea, with more open ocean around was a cat 3. will just keep it there for now, but adjust based on the initial landfall intensity.. when that happens.
97L has kept its center ahead of the convection, extended out into the big pool of saharan air in the eastern/central atlantic. there's a band of zonal westerlies at and just north of the low that is keeping the deep convection peeled back.. and less impressive than earlier. even though it's been a closed nonfrontal low over the tropics generating winds near or at gale force, it may never be classified. i don't see the shear profile changing that much in the coming days.
HF 0247z25august