| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:04 PM |
|
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
|
Quote:Quote:
On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?
The GFDL shows a curve back to the southwest and down across the Florida keys, strengthening a great deal in the process, and then curving around Florida back into the Gulf. The initial position is already off, so I think it's fairly safe to toss that one out. The model spread is all over, from there to North Carolina. At this point there is no reason I can see to doubt the NHC's track over the next 24 hours.
Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:
This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.