| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:12 PM |
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
|
Quote:Quote:
Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:
This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.
Aye, I think we can toss this particular run out, future ones are different. The next one should be more interesting. And I think the 24 hour track is pretty good, beyond that I have doubts. Just to clear that up.
I am in the same boat.I think the next 24 hrs they got right but IMO i dont think the track as it is now will stay the same across the state.I am going by the model runs i just seen on the TV where there were many GOOD models all over the map.There is no clear track like many storms so ALA charlie last year this storm could keep going when it hits the gulf or it may not even make it there.
I like the nogaps run as it tends to go along with the gdfl in going almost south of west before it hits the gulf.
But we shall see and i think some of the models still don't have a handle on it yet.