No one isn't talking about it...it's pretty much right down the middle and not far off of the model consensus. It's not an extreme solution, so it is going to get little publicity in an NHC discussion, in the media, or on a message board such as this. It's simple, down the middle, and is probably very close to being right.
The link that someone posted earlier -- http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png -- currently shows a clustering of the best dynamical & statistical models available right near Apalachicola, FL. This is pretty consistent with the NHC forecast, too, which shouldn't be a big surprise. Since 2001/2002, the GFDL and the NOGAPS have been the two best dynamical models...the GUNS/CONU consensus models have done even better...while the FSU Superensemble has been the best overall for two years (timing issues excluded). The NHC usually strays little from the Superensemble and the best models, and this is likely no exception.
|