Right Old Sailor, but don't overlook the fact that this is the first run in a while where the GFS is actually crossing the state. It represents a growing consensus in the models. Also, while the NHC did express concern over the GFDL, as you noted, it's not like they ignored the GFS. They did an interest in it, and I don't doubt that this run will play a major role in their 5AM forecast. (as the NHC seems to be heavily relying on it this season) This "ain't your ordinary model flip flop," it's a complete shift for a major model.