It may be part of a growing consensus, but do remember that given the westward shift, it will lead to a westward shift in the consensus tracks. Despite the shift, I don't expect any real change to the track forecast with the 5a advisory unless something else changes in the model analyses.

Note that the 00z GFS track is similar to the 12z and 18z FSU MM5 runs, both of which are run off of the corresponding GFS analyses. All three show a track up the west coast of the state with a landfall in the general vicinity of Cedar Key. It helps to narrow the potential landfall points at the very least, but as with all model guidance, we need to see what kind of trends show in the model.

Given a full-fledged tropical storm, the GFDL tends to over-develop tropical cyclones; given weak storms, it flip-flops between keeping them weak and really developing them. There often seems to be little middle ground with the model's intensity forecasts; despite that, it still does a good job on track and is better than most on intensity. I don't doubt that the storm is going to get stronger -- I just don't buy it getting that strong. The islands of the Bahamas will have some impact upon the circulation, while it still needs some time to consolidate a solid core. The microwave imager passes over the storm earlier suggested some asymmetric areas of convection around the larger circulation; it'll take these contracting into a single CDO before we start to see deep intensification. Best bet is still for something along the lines of a category 1 hurricane at landfall.