The population is much less, but the surge potential is much, much higher. Cedar Key was devestated by an extratropical cyclone in the mid-80s, while the whole coastline was ravaged by Dennis this year despite the storm making landfall 150-200 miles further west. It likely won't be a major -- probably high end 1 -- but that's still going to do a lot of damage, particularly given that this is a heavily wooded area without a very strong infrastructure (the power grid in Tallahassee, for instance, is unreliable during strong weather at best). Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.