I'll believe the GFDL solution moreso than the UKMET solution, which I will disregard for the time being as 1) it has been one of -- if not the -- worst major dynamical model for TC forecasting over the past 3 years (after a stellar 2001) and 2) there's nothing to suggest that an reasonably deep TC will move SW in the Gulf like that. Even still, the storm is just 25 miles from shore -- or about 5hr -- and given no synoptic forcing to do so I cannot see this storm moving south into Miami, yet alone the Keys. The wobbles of the storm are largely that -- wobbles -- and the storm is overall on a 270 heading towards Ft. Lauderdale. Other than internal oscillations, the trough that was trying to impart a southward component of motion upon the storm has now passed it by, leaving weak steering currents in its wake. The storm should drift across Florida at about 5-6mph before slowing in the western part of the state or offshore as the trough in the northern US draws closer.

Landfall looks to be maybe 4-6hr earlier than the NHC forecasts from two days ago, which isn't a bad call at all, and right about at the same location. Again, other than to bump up the intensity forecast at landfall (as noted yesterday), I see no reason to change my forecast from Tuesday evening. I'll update it again tomorrow as we move past the first landfall and towards a second landfall on the north-central to northeast Gulf coast.