Don't get down yet...it's just one set of model runs and things can and do change with these storms. As noted before, however, slow variations in forward motion are going to result in pretty big deviations in the track. The trough appears to be well-forecast in terms of when, where, and how strong, leading to the forecast largely becoming one of timing (IMO). Note that unless Katrina gets really strong, it'll have a natural tendency as a larger storm to move further nortward than perhaps expected...not a lot, of course, but something to consider if anyone thinks the storm will become a strong/major hurricane.