The initial motion estimate is 265/5. 12z and 18z upper-air data
indicate the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina has changed
little while an inverted mid- to upper-level trough has developed
northward from the Caribbean Sea to Katrina. The trough is expected
to induce a slight south of due west motion for the next 12 hours
or so.

There is the little south motion but not enough to get it out over the gulf in less then 24 hours.

Funny how they like the gdfl and nogaps but they want to stay right of the models.

Guess they will wait and see what the gfs which to me has been all over the map what it does i guess we should go by since that is the one they are using