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Andrew passed over the Everglades during a relatively dry period; it was also a very small storm, more likely to result to either favorable or negative conditions beneath the storm. Despite that, it only lost 15kt of intensity over Florida, from 130-135kt to 115-120kt. Given the moist conditions of the region right now and the larger size of Katrina as points against that and the weaker initial state of the storm as a point for it, a similar drop-off could be expected. Not saying that it is likely, and that's certainly not what is forecast right now, but anything between 35-55kt coming off-shore is not out of the realm of possibility. |