Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM
Re: se wv loopy

Quote:

The eye certainly doesn't look any worse than it did when coming onshore. I have trouble imagining it weakening as much as the official forecast suggests, considering the way it looks right now. The intensity forecast as a whole seems pretty conservative.




Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing. The eye hasn't shown any signs of disruption while overland. It's been overland for almost 5 hours now, and it still looks strong. If it exits in 3-4 hours as predicted, I don't see any reason for the intensity drop that NHC is predicting. It will be moving over VERY warm water, approaching 30-31C in places. This is ripe for development, and if the eye stays intact, it doesn't even need to reoganize.