there are a couple of considerations. katrina's inner core hasn't improved much in appearance since overnight... the northern eyewall is still rather unimpressive. there's a solid patch of dry mid-level air which is diving sw from north florida, and should be feeding into the storm later today. should keep intensification slow and unsteady. i'd expect it to still be cat 1 this evening. tomorrow the storm should begin working the dry air out and deepen a little more steadily once it does. it will probably be nearing or at category 3 late saturday. sunday is the day that worries me.. katrina should be moving under the upper ridge axis by then, and also be getting a slight baroclinic enhancement. i'll keep my intensity idea at category 3 because stronger hurricanes are relatively rare at landfall, but there is a possibility katrina will be stronger.
the model consensus over the past day have oscillated to either side of the bay-gulf county area in florida. if i was in that area i'd be taking the hurricane most seriously.
the real wildcard factors right now are intensity and westward movement over the next 24-36 hrs. if katrina stalls are moves erratically the forecast track will shift back to the big bend. if it lunges a good bit westward today it will move over to pensacola-fort walton. it's an odd-sounding thing to be hopeful for, but it might not be a bad thing if the hurricane got extremely strong while still offshore.. then the chance of an eyewall replacement cycle at landfall would be there.. like what dennis did right before hitting in july. a temporarily stunted cat 3 is a lot better to deal with than a deepening cat 3.
landfall timeframe looks to be monday morning, august 29th. mind that in most recent cases storms have hit within a day earlier than what i was thinking. sunday night looks just as good.
HF 1433z26august