Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Aug 26 2005 04:18 PM
Re: Special Discussion 13

Quote:

i can't recall ever hearing them give an intensity forecast to a possible 4....did ya check the SST's in the GOM?



I know; that, and the very very warm SSTs, the very very low shear. It's kind of spooky, watching it happen in what for us is slow motion, against the bustle of preparation.

I'm trying to just accept it and not get torqued up about it. That won't help the board, and no one can accurately predict the exact point of landfall this far out; those on the N GOM can only spend the weekend preparing. I'm just reminding myself today that while this event is on the end of the distribution, it is normal; normal for August, normal for the current conditions. No butterflies; I'll just take a seat and watch, with the facination that holds us all when this happens.

Remember that perfect day that Emily had as a Cat 4 riding through the Carribean, skirting with Cat 5 intensity off and on during the day? It was beautiful to watch because there wasn't anything in her way that day. I watched her all day. It's hard to reconcile that facination that we can't help for nature, with the concern we have when such a storm may possibly soon be in the GOM, but we have to do it and in a way that we don't unduly alarm anyone who might be looking here for some advice.



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