I thought NHC said movement is still 265; still S of W. In the previous 12 hours of the 225/230 deg SW movement, the heavy convective band to the S had been dropping S in what seemed like stairstep movements. So this may be an element of the forward motion.

However with intensifying and with the heavy convection bands still trying to wrap around and form a more uniform shape, doesn't it seem likely that we'll see some erratic jogs? Every time I have seen the jogs on the ones I've watched so far this summer, it is related to intensification.

I am interested to understand more about the jogs that occur in this way. Is it somehow related to the inertia of the heavy convection that is forming as intensification occurs? I wondered about this last night with Katrina. It seemed sometimes that the lopsided band had an inertia and a pull on the center of the storm, such that the movement of the eye temporarily curved around the convection, causing a jog to the S.

It is almost certain that in general it is going W and then a turn to the N, so I am thinking don't read too much into every jog as far as direction.

Before I went to sleep last night (I stayed up for the 3am advis), I thought that once Katrina got out over water the bands would be on the S and SE (which they are) but expected them to wrap around to the N and W faster than what I am currently seeing on radar, especially since sat image shows outflow is good.