SPECULATION FORECAST..............................................You know,, this storm has even confused me on the track and the best model outside the Nogaps has been the ETA. I say this cause I remember when this was just named a TS way down near Abaco and points south that the ETA came out and said it was going to move wsw like the nogaps but the nogaps had a error in it jogging this NW at first to north of Palm Beach before the wsw turn. ETA hasnt been consistant though in the fact it wants to jump on the rest of the models and turn this with the rest. Again with the 12z it does but at first it keeps it wsw for 24hours then comes to a drift west then a sharper turn N on Sunday then NE to where my landfall is between Cross City and Cedar Key Monday morning.
I havnt seen most of the 12z runs yet. I looked at the poor GFS and I mean poor by it not having a good record on Tropical Systems. It does well in midlatitude systems though, thats why the NWS likes to use it. Anyways the GFS has been the Nogaps little brother..always tags along with him 12-24hrs later.It has landfall between NO. and Pens,Fl. IM throwing out anything west of Panama City, Fl and Ill give ya my reasons now. Once again, this is just speculation and Ill probably get this wrong. I dont like doing this but I like to give a 3 day forecast. My confidence in this forecast goes again most models and you can take the logic in it but of course dont rely on it,
As I see it, we have a strong ridge thats weakning over LA and Miss. That along with a inverted weak trough over the NW carribean has pulled Katrina sw-wsw over the last 24 hours as most predicted. Thing was how strong the ridge was. Stronger the ridge and shape of it n-s pulled it down more. Also weak trough heading now into the se with dry air into central florida. This may carve her more sw then expected over the next 12-24hours. I expect the ridge over the La area to migrate west and weaken as a trough over the western great lakes and Ohio valley move over the Mississippi valley by Saturday. The main mechanism I see is a ridge entering the NW U.S. at this time moving NE. With a ridge building NE it will cause more of a trough over the central and eventually eastern US. This is being supported by a 2nd pulse dropping fast out of Wyoming into the plains currently this will be the drive to push Katrina N and NE Sunday into Monday. I expect the trough to dig into the Tennessee valley on Saturday and SE US on Sunday. The current ridge will be be over SE TX by then with a weak ridge over the Bahamas. A weakness will then be formed between the 2 pushing anything N in the eastern gulf. Now I expect the trough to slow but continue SE across GA and Ala by Monday morning making anything in the northen and eastern gulf to turn NE.
Overall with that being said above,,expect Katrina to move wsw with a slowdown later tomorrow. I then expect a wobble or 2 in a N, NE direction before a slow NNW motion Saturday night and a turn to the N and NNE during the day on Sunday. By Sunday night she will be up near 27-28N and near 85 W and will move NE late sunday night into monday making landfall Monday near Cross City -Cedar Key. Strengthning to a Cat 3 or higher isnt out of the question ,,infact I said way before it was near florida that she would be a Cat 3 in the gulf. Right now I think she can peak out at 130-135mph. Nearing landfall I think she will be down some due to shear along the SE U.S. possibly 115-120mph. Anyways this is just speculation and using maybe not the BEST of my abilities at forecasting but trying to find out a solution to this storm.