Just a note here about two phenomena I feel I am observing with commnetary on Katrina. First, I get the sense as I review the NHC site that there is less and less willingness to explain the reasoning behind the forecast track. I personally think it is out of concern that folks reading it will "buy into" too much or too little of it and plan accordingly, perhaps only to be caught flat footed if things change. After Charley's unexpected early right hand turn last year, who can blame them? Just seems to me that prior to Miami landfall the NHC was much more forthcoming about where and why. Seem to be playing it much closer to the vest now, I am sure in part because Katrina might be so much more devastating the second time around.

Wondering first of all if any of the folks who frequent this site feel the same way?

Second, the folks who do frequent this site (myself included) I believe are more apt to awfulize storm factors in relation to where we personally live. For example, I live in Orlando. "Do I detect an early northward jog?" "Would that mean the storm will landfall further east than currently forecast?" My personal favorite theory (from my own head last night as I went to bed): If the storm goes further south than expected, doesn't that mean both that the turn to the west will be shorter and that there will be more time over water for it to turn back east? LOL.

My point is, as someone obviously interested in whether the storm turns earlier or more eastward, what is going to happen in my backyard?

The reason I say these phenomena are related is that the kind of attention I pay to the forecast advisories is exactly WHY the NHC might have to think twice before expounding upon their reasoning. Why talk about the factors involved in the latest BAM or GFS runs when someone like me might look at it and, if I personally detect an error down the road even the slightest, convince myself that the storm is obviously making a beeline for my pool?

Truth be told I'd like to see cooler heads prevail on here. I am an offender just like everyone else. But I for one this time around (and hopefully in the future) plan to take my precuations, monitor the storms, take interest in the climatology, but not anoint myself the one person on Earth who can see that Katrina is headed for the 800 block of Brickell Avenue.