i didn't think it would get past cat 1 today. it busted that idea about 30 mins after i stated my case. now i'm gonna go for it not getting past cat 2 for the next 12 hrs, because there's a pretty sizeable area of dry mid-level air diving down from the north, which should erode the convection and keep katrina very lopsided, with most of the storm remaining on the se side. the intake of dry air should slacken up to modest and weak by late tomorrow/sunday... that's when i think the storm will strengthen significantly. gonna stick with the cat 3 idea for now because cat 4s tend to spin down before hitting.. but the conditions are obviously there for katrina to get a great deal stronger.
caught a few joe b comments this morning.. he mentioned that the pressure could bottom out around 910mb by his reckoning. if the favorable outflow environment, slight baroclinic kick, and 87-88F waters are any indication, that isn't outside of the realm of possibility. better root for the dry air to keep piling into the storm.
gonna keep the impact point around bay/gulf counties for now, monday morning.
away east 97L finally has a co-located center and deep convection, but the cyclonic flow around it is now broad, and it's still in a sheared/subsidence rich environment. it should break through that shearing trough in the next day or two.. and spin up depending on what it has left.
southeast of there is another cyclonic turning/low pressure area.. with isolated to scattered convection. it also has the potential to slowly develop over the next couple of days. probably an invest tomorrow.
HF 1901z26august