well, i'm watching how 97L looks now. the latest t-rating was 1.0, so since nhc has switched to that as their reasoning to not classify the system (usual baseline is 1.5)... that's just the latest twist. it is true that the llc has turned into one of those transient mini-vortex type centers that reforms rather than moves, but i'd reiterate that this feature is not classified because it's in the open atlantic and not in the gulf. i'm thinking it will finally break through the shear zone into something less hostile (it's fought the subsidence admirably).. and the earlier model progs of it sensing a weakness and turning up are looking ok.. even though they're still getting it hung up in no-mans land further to the north.
the nrl site and ssd rating list didn't show another invest, but that feature around 12/38 is getting better organized, slowly. i think the next number will be 98L, unless td 12/katrina took it by default when it emerged out of what nrl was tracking as old 10. the system in front of it is probably creating enough of a weakness for the new feature to sense it and turn up, but the ridge is rebuilding early next week, so it might not do more than gain some latitude and continue west. some of the globals were taking it all the way across earlier... it might try if the zonal ridge progged next week verifies and holds.
oh yeah, and there's this big hurricane in the gulf, by the way. guess we'll revert back to the real story.
hmm.. we made cnn? hope they know we're mostly amateurs.
HF 2028z26august