Only if the direct hit is way over past the east side of the bay, around Orange Beach.

Remember the damage swath from the highest winds is very narrow. That is why forecasting the path of a Cat 4 (and let's not go assuming anything yet) is so critical.

If a Cat 4 were to hit on the west side of MOB Bay, then Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and downtown MOB (mainly from flooding) would be hardest hit, not Pensacola Beach.

Similar reasoning...a Biloxi hit, head on causes the most problem for back bay Biloxi residents due to flooding from offshore winds, and the highest winds to Ocean Springs, flooding in Jackson Cty. However an Ocean Springs direct hit causes devastation to all of Jackson Cty. But a hit as far west as Gulfport, Jackson Cty gets minimal wind and water damage. Anything to the east, a Mobile hit, Jackson Cty gets high winds and some flooding but not the brunt of the storm.

We're talking about differences of 20-30 miles making the difference in this type of scenario. Forecasting can't make those kinds of calls even when a storm is only 100 miles offshore, in every situation.