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This'll probably change often up until landfall. Until it finally makes it move, and turns, it will be difficult to tell. Many years ago, discussions ended with something to the effect of "forecast errors may exceed several hundred miles", and that was when they only did 3 day forecasts. There has been tremendous improvement, as 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as those old 3 day forecasts, but I think this track is still written in pencil, with a good sized eraser on top. |