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Big question is when does she start to turn. NHC says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
Yep, I agree - although, Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin is much more than 100 NM from N.O. last time I checked. It's a 4 hour drive, at any rate. People making comparisons to Frederick concern me - I remember Frederick (even though I was 7) - we got a LOT of rain here (Valparaiso, north of FWB).
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Re: AL MS LA