JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Aug 26 2005 09:58 PM
Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch

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Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.



My feelings have been blown out of the water today.

I have zero confidence in any model solution at this point...I am currently going old school and doing more diagnostic than model interp right now, trying to get a handle on these model vacillations. This is a TOUGH forecast. I am not ready to commit to anything more narrowed down thatn Apalachicola to Grand Isle at this point. Sorry...but this is a real problem to forecast.



Thank you for your honesty. This is a disturbing storm to say the least. Is there a possiblity that this storm stalls after going SW another 50-100 miles? If so, what are the implications for all of the GOM??? All of my friends in the Tampa Bay area are ignoring the storm, so I wonder if they have a clue as to just how unpredictable GOM storms are....


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