Quote:

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Quote:

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From the NHC conference call....

SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...

More when I get it....

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GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...

HPC is going with the NAM forecast....

No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...

Forecast points...

HPC

12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.

NHC

12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140

(my supposition....TX is now in play)


MORE.....

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89.5, that's 30 miles west of my house..... Bay St. Louis Waveland area..... now what does that scenario of a forecast track remind you of... I dare not say it.... the "C" word.... I'm hoping for more west trends or east trends, hell south and north trends would be good to...... and hopefully some big ones as well... now is NOT the time for the models to start clustering and consistent from run to run... and when do they really do that 72 hours out... OK, I'm not worried any more...