| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:11 AM |
Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
|
Quote:Quote:
115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous
Why does the NHC do this....keep it as a Cat 4 but hint at the two models pointing to a 5? Instead of erring on the conservative side for loss of life, just come out and predict a Cat 5 to get everyone and their brother out of LA/MS/AL. If it hits as a 3 or 4 then everyone's happy anyway.
It's call mass PANIC. If a Cat 5 is predicted to hit Greater New Orleans without sufficient time to evacuate the people, mass hysteria is likely to result. As it is, mass hysteria is only a 75-95% probability.
For what it is worth, I still don't have much faith in the forecast.