Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 26 2005 11:49 PM
Re: Update

Quote:

Also, don't concentrate on the line. On that path NO is well within the major danger zone. With a forecast like that, I would suspect that NO has no choice but a massive evacuation.



Exactly!

Remember that the line is the "central forcast track" from the NHC. Take their 1-2-3 model. Landfall near NO is predicted at 72 hours. Based on the 1-2-3 model, there might be error of up to 300 nautical miles. That is one h*** of a big distance when it comes to pinpointing landfall.

I'm not saying that there is that big an error, but even a hundred mile error could make all the difference for a state along the gulf coast. Look at how much the NHC forcast track has moved in just the past day.


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