Hey everyone,

I hesitate to say this, but thinking it through, I'm starting to think the models are out to lunch on this storm, particularly this model run. Unless some sort of stronger steering current arrives, I suspect the storm is going to continue it's wsw motion for at least another 12 hours or so.

Why is that important? because it will give the storm more time to recurve to the east when it is finally picked up. Watching radar, the storm is still (to quote the discussion) heading wsw and at a fast enough clip to be obvious on the radar (yes, I know you can't alway trust radar to show a storms motion, but on this one I feel pretty confident of the motions). None of the models are picking up that wsw motion currently.

So, what does that mean? Well, I expect the model runs to either start trending back with a harder turn to the NE, or strangely enough, to trend way west and not really recurve at all. At this point, I really don't think the mets were joking about anywhere from phoenix, AZ to Naples could be hit by this storm.

(I mention the WSW motion because none of the models progged a motion this far south. (even UKMET had a turn north of where the storm is now) And as was also pointed out by Clark, small changes now reflect large changes later in a storm track. So I won't quite say the current model runs are useless, but I'm tending to think along those lines)

-Mark