there was some talk of it this morning, but when the major hurricane progs started and shifted along the central gulf coast, it hasn't been mentioned since.. but there has to have been some kind of rainfall over western cuba. that large band of deep convection south of the core of katrina has been laid across the eastern parts of the island all day and all evening. cuba has never been under any watches or warnings, but thus far they've probably had the worst of katrina in terms of flooding.
i'm still headscratching on the forecast track. earlier i went well east of my initial ideas.. then the forecast track started swinging west and is further west than anywhere i've ever had it. the best case scenario for what should be a very powerful hurricane would be the central or western part of louisiana.. lots of swampland and not too many people living inland either. either side of that are long stretches of coastline with more vulnerable population centers and more infrastructure to wreck.
97L the nhc has given up on. the center is still trying to break the shear zone, only now the upper flow in the central atlantic is reorganizing and there is a good upper westerly flow just about everywhere. might finally kill the thing. there goes another 'could-have-been' system.
90L to its southeast is under an east-west oriented upper ridge. should stay under it for the next few and slowly develop. globals aren't overly enthusiastic over it, but most keep it discernable and out of trouble. will see. the consensus is showing some activity with the next wave as well.
in the long range.. as katrina is going out a good trough should settle into the east. have to watch the western atlantic caribbean for a pattern-pulse response as it lifts out in early september. or for whatever might get by it.
HF 0538z27august
i'm just gonna set my landfall point back at the ms/al border for monday, late morning. strong category 3. might cut my losses. -HF