HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 (edited~danielw)
..KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT
945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET
EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY...