#98 Published Friday August 26, 2005 at 7:00 am EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

(off topic material removed)

At the 5:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane Katrina has become a CAT 3 115 mph hurricane. She is now easing onto a west heading or 265 deg.

I will elaborate in greater detail later this morning but I still do not buy the continued westward NHC TPC track and a landfall on New Orleans.

I am shifting my landfall window back a little eastward and widening it a bit too to between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL. Once again I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model.

I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.