I am confused, which is not unusual. The 11:00 discussion says in part "THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR ", and goes on to say later in the discussion: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR."

Does this not seem contradictory, or at least signal a lack of confidence in the forecast track?? I mean, if the turn is going to take place sometime in the next 72 hours, how can landfall be in 48-60 hours at a point that required the turn?

NHC has been amazingly "on" this year, and this is probably just some "averaging" issue I don't understand, but I would appreciate a clue as to how these two statements can both be true.

Thanks!