Good morning (yes I'm a sleepyhead).

Looks like the southerly movement has stopped and that she's in an ERC, and because of that she hasn't gained any overall intensity since 4am, looking at recon. So my guess is that we will be seeing pretty much the status quo for today with strengthening later tonight or tomorrow, at earliest very late afternoon.

There must be a reason the winds didn't catch up before the ERC this morning. It would appear she tried to intensify but something kept the process from completing successfully, and whatever that is, is still holding her back.

Remember how Emily "tripped" and fell apart just a half day before hitting Cozumel? That was definitely something different going on in that particular case, but in general there seem to be many processes that haven't been identified yet that affect intensification, as we learn more about these complex storms.