One of the neat features of the CMISS floater graphic is it doesn't move the storm but instead moves the land outlines while keeping the storm's center centered.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javanh2.html

If you watch the land move, the system is still clearly moving west with a slight northward movement. IR and Visible are very misleading on their own right now becuase the eye has filled in completely. Expect that to change in a few hours as the ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) finishes.

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I think something people are ignoring about the potential result of the ERC is that the new eyewall is at 40 NMs now (based on Recon posted by StormHunter). That is a VERY large eye. With this large eye pressure is already at 945mb. 945mb is the max pressure usually associated with Category 3 storms. Now I realize the wind isn't yet Category 3, but wind takes time to catch up with pressure.

The problem begins when you look at what shrinking eyes do as they consolidate. They drop the presure of the system. Think of it as a valve. You have a certain amount of air that must get through it every minute. If you make it smaller, the air will flow faster. That is what happens with a shrinking eye, and the result is lower pressure becuase the air is moving faster.

With a central pressure already at 945mb, any lessening of the presure brings it easily into Category 4 range - the winds will just have more catching up to do, and expect the winds to catch up. Becuase of the size of the new eye, pressures below 920mb are not impossible when it shrinks. We need to watch this carefully.

--RC