#101 Published Friday August 27, 2005 at 11:15 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

At the 11:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 3 Katrina has a sustained wind of 115 mph, is at position 25.0 deg. N 86.2 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 27.73" and is currently on a WNW heading or 290 degrees at a speed of 7 mph. But looking at latest satellite imagery she appears to be on a 300 deg. Also is continuing to undergo an eyewall reformation cycle and has not strengthened in quite a while.

I continue to see no reason to change my landfall forecast that has been in effect since Friday evening, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.

I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.

By the way it strikes me as kind of odd that the NHC/TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, FL well east of the forecast track error cone!