Guys and gals, she's RIGHT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.

There were two vortex fixes just north of track, but the trend is right on the line. Last fix was slightly WEST of the forecast track.

Don't fixate on the exact center - with a 30nm diameter eye, being off 30nm won't help you a bit!

Dr. Lyons has a point, BUT that trough is not very vigorous down there. Look at the weather maps and WV loops - the strength in that trough IS lifting out NE, as was forecast. Look at the forecast maps for the next 24 hours; there's a pronounced weakness right north of NO - which is exactly where the NHC has forecast the storm to head.

Whether it jogs east or west of there a bit is not going to be material with a storm of this size and power, and betting on an east - or west - wobble or jog in the path is VERY ill-advised.

I'm expecting near-hurricane-force winds here in Niceville, and a tidal surge of somewhere around 4' in the bay - 6-10' directly on the gulf. Add to that wave impact, which will be considerable for gulf-front exposures.

Please do not be complacent or think that someone's projections of a slight eastward change in track means you're "ok" if you're on the western edge of the envelope! By the same token this storm could be trouble all the way over to Destin - you can bet I'm watching it VERY closely, as that's where we are!