Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 28 2005 11:06 AM
Re: Category 5 Katrina Winds to 175MPH

Well, once again, the other shoe drops. The same new wording we saw in the news at 9am this morning. Actually, I like the way they decided to do this. From the 10am discussion:

"Recalling that the average NHC 24-hour
track forecast error is about 80 N mi...the actual landfall point
could still be anywhere from southeastern Louisiana to the
Mississippi coast. Also...we must continue to stress that the
hurricane is not just a point on the map...because destructive
winds...torrential rains...storm surge...and dangerous waves extend
well away from the eye. It is impossible to specify which County
or Parish will experience the worst weather."

What else could they do given the situation and forecasting limitations? NHC conservatively will always stay with the previous forecast unless there is some specific rationale to change it. But here they are saying the forecast is only as good as it is, and for a storm like this, the forecast isn't really good enough - not anyone's fault.

So anyone anywhere near can expect they might possibly see the worst, not just NO now. But notice the error all goes to the EAST of the original predicted track, none to the west (lucky you, Abbeville). So look for a curve more to the NE closer to landfall.