#101 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 12:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

Sorry folks but I lost my web server at around 1:00 am EDT this morning and cannot update my weather forecasting website and It could not be worse timing.

At the 8:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane Katrina was updated to a CAT 5 tropical cyclone with a sustained wind of 160 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 26.81". It underwent incredible strengthening during the overnight hours after the ERC ended.

As of the 11:00 am EDT advisory CAT 5 Katrina has a sustained wind of 175 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph, is at position 26.0 deg. N 88.6 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.78"" and is currently on a WNW heading at a speed of 12 mph. Right now Katrina is as strong as CAT 5 Camille was in 1969, only much larger.

I still think that Katrina will turn NW-N-NE and pass just east of the Mississippi River Delta due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough current located over the Central Plains region. But this will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.

I continue to see no reason to change my landfall forecast "appreciably", one that has been in effect since Friday evening 08/26/05, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.

However I will now shift the landfall window a little to the west, of Pascagoula, MS on the left side and Navarre, FL on the right side, with the bulls eye along the Alabama-Florida border. But due to the size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east, on early Monday morning 08/29/05.

As far as I know there have been no mandatory evacuations ordered along the Alabama coast eastward to the western Florida panhandle, so a horrific human catastrophe may occur. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.

Even the intensity forecast has now become difficult. It is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long but she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But as she leaves the loop current, enters shallower shelf waters and dry air entrainment and wind shear increases, she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.

By the way the NHC/TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Indian Pass, FL well east of Panama City and outside the forecast track error cone, also westward to Cameron, LA. That tells you just how large this tropical cyclone is!!!