there is no silver lining, but it's good that the cloud tops have cooled some since this morning. don't think katrina will do more than level off and slowly weaken from here on in. that's historically what one would expect. the ssts are upper 80s and aren't going to change... the dry air feed is light and roughly the same... and the upper westerlies seem to be bowing to the storm rather than the storm bowing to it. i'd expect the hurricane to have spun down at least to a borderline 4/5 at landfall, because it's just not normal for a hurricane that strong and large to keep it's intensity steady. it should slowly erode back in the fashion that ivan did.. i don't see any ERCs on the way because the eye is large and the eyewall solid.
forecast track, unfortunately, looks correct. assuming it is correct, which i do... it should come in just east of grand isle, move up just east of new orleans metro. ponchatrain should be in the city tomorrow afternoon. since the eye is large, areas like bay st louis and gulfport are going to get torn up pretty badly. biloxi and pascagoula will likely see serious damage as well.. places like houma and mobile less so, but still a significant impact. hurricane force winds will extend well inland into mississippi...i wouldn't be surprised if they get as far inland as columbus or even tupelo. the official has it as a tropical storm practically to kentucky, and that looks right as well.
the fairy godmother likes to show up at the last minute with these things. keep your fingers crossed for monday morning. it's something you never really see coming, but dennis, ivan, and frances were all less than they could have been.
HF 1856z28august