Unfortunately Dan, if we get an ERC right now, Katrina may have enough time to begin strengthening again right at landfall. At this point though, debating intensity is almost insignificant, as the surge is the big factor for Nawlins, and when it comes to wind... well it doesn't make a whole heckuva lot of difference if I hit you with a sledgehammer or a basball bat... either way it's not pretty. I'd like to post a link Old Sailor posted a few days ago again. It has been a tremendous help for me in determining the true motion of the storm. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

It's a game of mere miles for New Orleans right now, I can't really make a call. If by some miracle, the storm passes far enough east to avoid devasting the city, it’s still going to be a close shave. I don’t think we’ll be able to forecast it either, we’ll simply know it when it happens.