Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Aug 29 2005 12:04 AM
Re: whew

Could be a sign of some slight weakening...might be an eyewall replacement cycle, but if that were to be occurring, the hurricane hunters would have full recognition of the cycle and would be noting this in the remarks sections of the vortex messages. Instead, it's probably some temporary reorganization, but we can always hope that it is something more substantial than that. I don't anticipate any Isabel-style rapid weakening, though...there's nothing to really support that right now.

It does appear as though that attenuation may not be quite the factor that I thought it might have been, judging by the last few radar frames and collaborating it with the recon report. However, attentuation is still likely playing some role with the representation of the storm on land-based radar.

Edit: on second thought, it might well be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave data earlier today apparently -- taking the word of some pros much more trained in this than I am -- showed a second eyewall in the formative stages, something that may only have a very weak signature in radar or in wind data until the point that it is about to replace the first eyewall. What is happening now is somewhat similar to what occurred with the past cycle, where the inner eyewall remained as a fragment along the periphery of the new eyewall. This helped to keep the storm at a constant intensity for some time, longer than normal, before it really ramped up again. I'm still not sold in the least on this being the very beginnings of an eyewall replacement cycle, but feel it's probably 50/50 on that right now. We can only hope that it is.



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