I believe the big difference if it goes east of NO vs west has to do with the city's topography. Lake Pontchartrain being NORTH of the city, if it goes east of town, the winds will be from the north and drive the lake waters (and waves) into the levees, possibly over them, and into the city. If it were to go west of NO, the winds would be southerly and drive the lake water away from NO. Much of the damage and loss of life is likely to be from flooding and a passage west of NO could significantly diminish it.
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Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect