i'm a little confused by people posting that 50K people are going to die. if FEMA was talking like that, wouldn't it be all over the major networks? sketchy also on the intensity forecast now. it does look like the track is on, but i'm watching the inner core on radar (satellite eclipse for now) and it does look like an ERC or just plain ol' erosion is taking place, especially on the SE side of the inner core. now, if at sunup tomorrow the appearance is solid annular, yeah, i'll know the worst is on its way. but i sense the fairy godmother, if you know what i mean.
now, as for N.O. being flooded.. i'm not going to argue that. yes, it's going to flood. a lot of the city will be under a lot of water. as for the people in the superdome... not sure the roof will fail. they'll need cat 4 winds, and that isn't a certainty. i'm betting N.O. winds will peak around 120mph late morning tomorrow. worse east of the city and from slidell to gulfport, surely... but N.O. will probably get the west side. also not sure how many people are playing chicken and staying behind in the city. a lot of the older architecture is going to get destroyed, so hopefully not too many people were dumb enough to stay in that. i'm sure they got folks out of the areas to be totally submerged.. that just leaves people in a very windy version of venice, i guess.
i think this hurricane will probably kill more people than any in recent years, but the huge numbers some of y'all are fronting.. nah, just can't see that happening. local and government authorities aren't going to let that happen.
okay, i've said my piece. hope i wake up to less of a hurricane tomorrow.
HF 0620z29august