Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 29 2005 07:42 AM
Re: Weakening and Heading North

Darn I was afraid of this (going from C30 to C32 and from closed to open, and so quickly).

The eyewall is expanding and this will continue, and the strongest winds which comprise the eastern eyewall, will migrate to the center of the MS Gulf Coast by landfall (Gulfport and Biloxi) instead of reaching only say to Waveland or west Bay St. Louis.

Earlier today I thought that the storm was going to turn eastward so that the east side of the eyewall would make landfall between Gulfport and Biloxi (and it is still too soon to tell if that can still occur or if the storm will track to the NHC predicted path). But this could be just as bad...say the storm stays close to the NHC track, but the eye, which is already so large, expands so that the worst part of the storm clobbers the entire MS Gulf Coast.

It now appears that if the storm tracks to the E of NO, they will be spared the highest winds and may not see any sustained winds much over 100mph. However this will still be enough to cause problems with flooding.

Edit -- the appearance of the eye on the 0645Z wv sat image is no longer round. Also the wv sat images shows just how significantly the western side of the storm has eroded. Since she's so large, I'm wondering now if we're not going to see her fall apart rather spectacularly and quickly.

The argument is usually made that change affects smaller hurricanes faster (well at least in the sense they might be able to spin up and spin down faster), but consider that with such a very large eye and with the core covering a larger area, it could be harder to maintain a stable structure close to land.

I'm wondering what's going to happen when that eroded west side spins around. As the storn spins around, the strong east side will go around the north, partly over land, and should also deteriorate. So when the already weak west side comes around, how much will it be rejuvinated by the Gulf waters before going over land again. I'm thinking that because the storm is so lopsided right now, this is going to be more of an issue than you'd normally assume. Also it's possible that it will never be able to get the eyewall closed again.



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