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Quote: No...the last recon was 915 it's only gone up 2mb since then. However that's really something about the eyewall, er, half an eyewall. Of course the sat images are some time behind this but recall how the eye has looked since 0715Z on sat Edit -- the 4am downgrades the winds to 150mph and speed increases, as expected, to 15mph. Still, says she won't reach the LA/MS border until this aft. Some long morning for MS Gulf Coast. Well the NHC discussion doesn't mention anything about an ERC or a 2nd eyewall, however on radar it appears there is a 2nd band (also only halfway around) and my thinking was that the inner eyewall would collapse and we'd be left with a ~50mi wide eye. The NHC discussion pointed out the remainder of time before 2nd landfall in LA/MS was near warm water and raised the possibility that the existing eye could redevelop. They seem to allow however for the possibility that Katrina may be down to a Cat 2 by 2nd landfall with this statement, "...may be enough to keep Katrina a major hurricane when it reaches the Louisiana Mississippi border area." |