Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 29 2005 06:30 PM
Re: Gulfport Tidal Flooding

One thing to keep in mind: if Jim Cantore's building is 27 feet above sea level and there is 10 feet of water in that building, that does not mean there was a 37-foot surge. That might be true, but it is not necessarily so.

As with any strong storm (including Andrew down here), sometimes areas experience deeper flood waters than the amount of surge which affected that area. (And contrarily, some areas experience shallower floods than the amount of surge which affected the area.) Several factors account for this, among them the terrain, both natural and man-made. For example, water can be "funneled" through both natural and man-made channels. If fixed structures - buildings, walls, hills, etc. - are in the surge area, some of the surge may be forced around the fixed structures and result in more water being forced into a smaller area, resulting in higher water levels in those smaller areas.

And of course, add to that rainwater, spillover from rivers, etc., and water levels can be even higher.

So given the right conditions, even with a surge of 8 or 10 feet, people on the second floor of a building at sea level could find themselves under a couple feet of water.

So the fact that Jim Cantore experienced those conditions suggests that the surge may have been higher than 22 feet, but to the extent that is the basis for the 37-foot number, I would wait for confirmation from NHC. Or perhaps DM has gotten that confirmation; I just don't know, and wouldn't base the conclusion on Jim Cantore's, or any one person's, observations.



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