katrina is undoubtedly the new landmark in american natural disasters. lets hope it stands alone for many years to come. we still have no sound estimates on the dead and how high the monetary cost will be. the economic repercussions will reach us shortly in significantly higher gas prices.. and subsequent added costs to consumer goods.
i can pretty much rehash last night's review, because not much has changed. former 13 is moving nnw into the open atlantic ahead of a large weakness in the western atlantic. invest 91L is being sheared by a sharp low latitude upper trough, that should induce a more poleward movement and put it on a similar track. it has a significant amount of shear to survive for the next day or so before it reaches a more favorable environment. neither of these have tremendous development chances, but either has modest potential. numerous globals showing the next wave developing. will have to be watched based on time of year and overland signature.
big stew in the western and central atlantic. former 97L is indistinct near 25/60 along a convective cluster. an llc from one of the complexes near bermuda is spinning vigorously south of the island, but being sheared.
late in the week and into the weekend a large pattern-pulse type feature should be induced off the east coast and perhaps in the northern gulf. globals handle on this feature suggests it may not be a tropical feature. nevertheless it may potentially develop something close-in. models show a lot of shear, but may not be handling the circulation features well. there is a typhoon going west to taiwan, so that favors a resurgent ridge near the eastern u.s. via teleconnection... the other system appears okinawa or eventually japan bound. a similar response in the atlantic would support more landfall threats, but there don't appear to be any features in place to make the pattern connection.
rest of the week should be fairly quiet. the damage is done, however.
HF 2248z30august