HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 31 2005 04:55 PM
parade of weenies

td 13's forecast track looks sensible. it's competing with a sfc low to its nw that will keep it from strengthening a great deal, but i do think it will get a bit stronger than forecast.
91L should be classified. it's got a well defined surface low that's generating winds normally within the criteria of a depression.. but because the convection is currently sheared they're withholding classifying it. yet another case of the nhc ignoring a tropical system due to wind shear. the forecast is for shear to slack off in the next day or so, so this will probably develop in the long run.
92L is way the hell out, but its prospects are more for it to get further west in the long run. the synoptic pattern in the atlantic is shifting, and whereas a large trough is getting 13 and 91L, there should be more ridging and an ultimately further west track for this system. it may develop over the next few days.
eyeballing the potential pattern pulse system near the east coast... it keeps showing up in models, only in a variety of forms. most have it as a suspicious weak low... and are split on whether to drags out to sea, drifts across florida, or just bumbles around off the east coast. dependent on how progressive upper air features are and exactly where/what tries to form, any of these scenarios is possible. shouldn't show up for a couple of days, and is a highly theoretical feature right now.
HF 1655z31august



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