abyrd - you just made the mistake the NO folks must have. You concentrated on a single point.

If I recall, 72 hours (or more) out, one of the models was calling for an obscenely low pressure out of Katrina. Read the thread from around there and you'll see the mets here mentioning that no model really grabs hold of intensity very well, but if they catch something big, it tends to come to light.

Point being, they were warned beyond whatever the public announcement was. The NHC does lots of communication behind closed doors for public officials.