I hope it didn't sound like I was blaming the NHC. They do a great job. I remember early on, before Katrina hit Florida, the NHC referencing the GFDL model and saying they hope it didn't come true. It was that model that was forecasting a southwest turn and a large swing in the gulf.

My point was that city officials had a 72 hour model to evacuate. They shouldn't be chastized for not forcing evacuation at 72 hours because the official forcast was for the storm to not even come close at that time.

Rick, I have to agree with you. Due to the unpredictable nature of storms, governments should have plans to evacuate at 72, 48 & 24 hours and figure out how much it costs and get it done. But, look at Pompeii today. Seven million people live around the volcano that will blow again one day.